Origin: Author: Time: 2008-09-05Tag: Click: Marriage room becomes what developed business 2006 to help it seems that straw

So-called 150 thousand pairs marriage just needed to sound very inviting

But this 150 thousand be how must come out?

We view historical data first

Time country dweller is registered marry (10 thousand pairs)
1978 8.98
1979
1980 16.82
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 18.24
1986 19.02
1987 15.53
1988 14.78
1989 11.70
1990 10.77
1991 9.87
1992 9.77
1993 8.98
1994 8.70
1995 8.40
1996 8.96
1997 8.84
1998 8.57
1999 9.05
2000 9.31
2001 9.30
2002 9.10
2003 10.82
2004 12.49
2005 12 the left and right sides


Very regrettablly, data some are not comprehensive

But enough shows an issue

Because, data show is very normative periodic wave motion

Should assume here a few data, 79 years 120 thousand pairs, 81-84 year 170 thousand pairs, this data is reasonable still.

Before one round marriage fastigium should be 79 years (also be 80 years likely, did not repeat below)

This round marriage fastigium should begin from 2003.

The difference of arrival is 25 years

Marry first that is to say the age is controlled in 25 years old (accord with national level;-) ) .

But here has needed to notice at 2 o'clock
1, number of 3 years is less than 79 years apparently (10: 12)
2, the number before be more than 79 years every time.

The first problem: Number of 3 years is less than 79 years apparently (10: 12) adverse element!

This problem my judgement is:

1, the marriage of one part person the age should be more than 25 years old. And, this trend the evidence of broaden the scope. Can reach with the data 1980 from 2004 this conclusion.
2, of family planning execute, the height that makes one round this should not cross the summit that attends one round it seems that.

The 2nd problem: Be more than 79 years of numbers before every time. It seems that advantageous!

Will explain first, my judgement is a few following reason:
1, the action of ab extra population. Shanghai is mixed in 90 time bottom a large number of talents introduced at the beginning of this century. - - > after 2003, policy was tightened up, it is negative effect.
2, marry of suburb population first the age is less than a city, that is to say 80, the suburb young person that influences 81 years had married in 3 years. - - > also exist to marry first the phenomenon that the age defers, it is negative effect.
3, the divorce leads rise, drive 2 times, the addition of 3 marriage (cannot consider the child's marriage only! )- - > the influence cannot be judged. Just, experience judgement, the person that remarry has a house commonly.
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